Statistics Couldn't Retrieve 'Lost' Presbyterians

Touchstone August 2005

"Statistics Couldn't Retrieve 'Lost' Presbyterians" "

By Yvonne Wilkie

Statistical gathering is a curious but fascinating activity. The results can be challenging if made good use of or frustrating if the trends go unrecognised. The Presbyterian Church avidly collected statistics. In hindsight one can argue that their poor interpretation of the data meant lost opportunities of being ‘church' to both the membership and adherents.

Professor John Dickie wrote in 1937, ‘Statistics sums up the total result of the past activities of Christianity in the world, and sets forth the basis upon which future development must be erected.' This sentence concluded a paragraph explaining what purpose statistics held for theological insight. They tell the ‘territorial and boundary lines of Christianity, the numerical strength, and the character and ethical force within the world which he interpreted as the most difficult task for theological statisticians to analyse.

The Church's Committee responsible for statistics continually aligned the church statistical information with that of the national census. In 1902, the first opportunity to gather statistics for the whole Presbyterian Church, the Convener noted that of the 95,000 Presbyterians over 21 years recorded in the census only 29% were in ‘full communion'. Attendance in ‘good weather' of 63,000 including children, highlighted that under half of the Presbyterian population attended church services. ‘We need to humbly confess our shortcomings' he informed the General Assembly.

By the 1907 census Presbyterians had built 57 new churches, attendance at worship had increased by 7,124 and the national census recorded a total of 116,506 Presbyterians over 21 years. The percentage of church going Presbyterians had dropped to 23% and communicant membership had dropped to 27% of the census total. The Committee believed that these figures lacked a full picture of the work being undertaken across the church and a new statistic for those under pastoral care became a point of continuing significance.

The convener challenged ‘every true-hearted servant of the Lord's Kingdom' to take up the ‘language and spirit of the ancient prophets' so that a ‘rich outpouring' of the Spirit would ‘fall on the peoples' of the 20 th century. Sadly, this did not occur in the manner in which P.B. Fraser desired. In fact by 1939 the percentage of churchgoing Presbyterians reflected a relatively static but declining figure of 21.8% even though the number had increased to 80,572. Communicant membership, however had dropped quite dramatically to 15% of the total census figure of 356,855 Presbyterians.

Although the ‘missing' or ‘lost' Presbyterians from the Church's statistics became a focus for five decades there is little direct link to them in the future planning of General Assembly. By 1923 for example, the analysis suggested that of the 55% of Presbyterians not attached to a church, 49% lived in the urban centres. Strategies to make inroads into this significant group of people are not at all apparent in the records.

It is noted in 1940 that over the previous decade the relationship of additional places of worship in urban centres to that of church attendance had shown little if any increase in either church attendance or people under pastoral care. What reflection given to the survey of an urban parish by the General Assembly at this time is unknown? It indicates an urban culture evolving where churchgoing and participation is not included for the majority. The survey shows an ‘apathy and indifference' amongst nominal Presbyterians. They are neither ‘hostile' nor have ‘a grievance' towards the church. Some have week-end batches or cribs, while others prefer to remain ‘home to listen to the radio.' Their nominal link is through past Sunday School attendance or family tradition. The conclusions drawn by the Committee reflect the lack of in-depth analysis and application. Cause and effect were reduced to clichéd concepts of mixed marriages and living among a diverse group of denominations.

By 1962 gathering statistics had reached the bottom of a parish's priority list and returns were incomplete and inaccurate. A minority of Church groups referred to the statistics in planning their policies and activities and no General Assembly Committee made use of them. ‘Is there any point', the Committee challenged, ‘in recognising a responsibility for more and more “census Presbyterians” …while there is no apparent impact being made on those already “on the books”…?' However they continued to gather the data, including new classifications as the decline continued.

Who lives in this inner City flat? A Committee was established in 1964 to attend to the needs of Presbyterians living in the inner City.

The historical significance of the study of statistics is the overall and contextual relationship that the trends indicate. The rapid decline in church membership and attendance apparent from the 1970s had been evident as far back as 1907. Emphasis on the nominal Presbyterian produced in the end ‘a church where it was normal to be nominal'.

Close This Window to Return to the Main Screen